What is Expected CTR?
Expected CTR is the click-through rate you'd typically expect for a keyword based on its ranking position in Google. Position 1 naturally gets more clicks than position 10, which gets more than position 20. The expected CTR curve quantifies this relationship so you can compare your actual performance against the benchmark.
If your actual CTR is close to or above the expected value, your search listing is performing well. If it's significantly below, your title tag and meta description likely need improvement.
The expected CTR curve
Based on aggregate click-through rate data across search results, here's the expected CTR for each position range:
| Position | Expected CTR | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | One in four people click the top result |
| 2 | 15.0% | Sharp drop from position 1, but still strong |
| 3 | 10.0% | Top 3 results collectively get about half of all clicks |
| 4 | 5.0% | Noticeable drop below the top 3 |
| 5 | 3.0% | Middle of page 1 |
| 6 | 2.0% | Below the fold on many screens |
| 7 | 1.5% | Lower page 1 |
| 8 | 1.0% | Lower page 1 |
| 9 | 0.8% | Near the bottom of page 1 |
| 10 | 0.6% | Last result on page 1 |
| 11-20 | 0.3% | Page 2, very few searchers reach here |
| 21-50 | 0.05% | Pages 3-5, minimal visibility |
| 51+ | 0.01% | Beyond page 5, effectively invisible |
The curve is steep at the top. Moving from position 2 to position 1 nearly doubles your expected clicks. Moving from position 30 to position 29 makes almost no difference. This is why page 1 rankings (and especially top 3) matter so much.
Where expected CTR is used
Expected CTR appears in two key places throughout the app:
- CTR Optimization report: Compares your actual CTR against expected CTR for each keyword. Keywords where your actual CTR is less than 30% of expected get flagged as optimization opportunities. The CTR gap percentage tells you exactly how much you're underperforming.
- Search Score: Expected CTR is one of four factors in the daily Search Score formula. Keywords at higher positions contribute more to your score because they have higher expected CTR. This means your score naturally reflects the value of top positions.
What pushes actual CTR above expected?
Some search listings consistently outperform the expected CTR for their position. Common reasons include:
- Strong brand recognition: If searchers know and trust your brand, they're more likely to click your result even if it's not #1
- Rich snippets: Star ratings, FAQ dropdowns, product prices, recipe cards, and other structured data make your listing visually larger and more informative
- Compelling title and description: A title that perfectly matches the searcher's intent with a benefit-driven description can outperform position alone
- Sitelinks: When Google shows sitelinks below your result, it takes up more space and builds trust
- Author authority: For some queries, a recognized author or publication name can boost clicks
What pushes actual CTR below expected?
- Weak title tag: Generic titles like "Home" or "Services" don't give searchers a reason to click
- No meta description: Without one, Google auto-generates a snippet that may not be compelling
- Competitor featured snippets: A featured snippet above your result steals clicks even if you rank #1 organically
- Ad-heavy SERPs: 3-4 ads above organic results push your listing below the fold, reducing visibility
- Mismatched intent: If your page title doesn't match what the searcher is looking for, they'll skip past it
- Ugly URL: A URL full of random parameters or IDs looks less trustworthy than a clean, descriptive path